Brexit: What Happens Next?

LSE IDEAS Strategic Update by Tim Oliver

INTRODUCTION

Part 1: The Nine Brexit Negotiations

NEGOTIATION 1: UK Political

NEGOTIATION 2: UK Governance

NEGOTIATION 3: UK and non-EU Countries

NEGOTIATION 4: UK and the EU

NEGOTIATION 5: Within the EU

NEGOTIATION 6: EU Reform

Negotiation 7: The EU and the rest of Europe

Negotiation 8: The EU and the rest of the World

Negotiation 9: Ongoing EU business

Part 2: EU Positions on Brexit

Austria: Making use of UK-EU tensions for domestic purposes.

Belgium: Support for the UK staying in the EU, but European integration has priority.

Bulgaria: Brexit would be like UEFA without England’s national team and Wayne Rooney’s goals.

Croatia: a strong desire to see the UK stay.

Cyprus: A sensitive approach.

Czech Republic: A United Europe is the Priority.

Denmark: Quiet but clear support for a close UK-EU arrangement.

Estonia: Practical questions for the Estonian EU Presidency.

Finland: Seeking good EU-UK relations, but the EU is the first priority.

France: Brexit or not, the EU shall not recede.

Germany: Thinking less about the UK and EU-UK relations, and more about the EU as a whole.

Greece: Concerns about the unity of the EU and Eurozone.

Hungary: Seeking a quick exit deal.

Ireland: An exercise in damage limitation.

Italy: Supports EU Integration with or without the UK.

Latvia: Safeguarding the EU project.

Lithuania: Brexit could have a hazardous impact on “ever closer union”.

Luxembourg: Protecting European Integration and Financial Services.

Malta: One of the Countries Likely to be most affected by Brexit.

Netherlands: Helpful, but no blank check.

Poland: Going the extra mile for Britain but not at all costs.

Portugal: Balancing a centuries-old alliance with a modern commitment to the EU.

Romania: Continued free movement to the UK will be the ultimate redline.

Slovakia: Quiet anticipation at the helm of the EU Council.

Slovenia: Hoping for a remain vote.

Spain: Brexit will be seen through domestic politics.

Sweden: Prioritising geopolitics and cultural proximity with the UK.

EU institutions: EU first and looking forward.

Conclusion

About the Author

References

LSE IDEAS is LSE’s foreign policy think tank. We connect academic knowledge of diplomacy and strategy with the people who use it.

LSE IDEAS is LSE’s foreign policy think tank. We connect academic knowledge of diplomacy and strategy with the people who use it.