Jun 18, 2016

39 min read
Image Credit: Kevin Oliver

Brexit: What Happens Next?

LSE IDEAS Strategic Update by Tim Oliver


Part 1: The Nine Brexit Negotiations


NEGOTIATION 2: UK Governance

NEGOTIATION 3: UK and non-EU Countries


NEGOTIATION 5: Within the EU


Negotiation 7: The EU and the rest of Europe

Negotiation 8: The EU and the rest of the World

Negotiation 9: Ongoing EU business

Part 2: EU Positions on Brexit

Austria: Making use of UK-EU tensions for domestic purposes.

Belgium: Support for the UK staying in the EU, but European integration has priority.

Bulgaria: Brexit would be like UEFA without England’s national team and Wayne Rooney’s goals.

Croatia: a strong desire to see the UK stay.

Cyprus: A sensitive approach.

Czech Republic: A United Europe is the Priority.

Denmark: Quiet but clear support for a close UK-EU arrangement.

Estonia: Practical questions for the Estonian EU Presidency.

Finland: Seeking good EU-UK relations, but the EU is the first priority.

France: Brexit or not, the EU shall not recede.

Germany: Thinking less about the UK and EU-UK relations, and more about the EU as a whole.

Greece: Concerns about the unity of the EU and Eurozone.

Hungary: Seeking a quick exit deal.

Ireland: An exercise in damage limitation.

Italy: Supports EU Integration with or without the UK.

Latvia: Safeguarding the EU project.

Lithuania: Brexit could have a hazardous impact on “ever closer union”.

Luxembourg: Protecting European Integration and Financial Services.

Malta: One of the Countries Likely to be most affected by Brexit.

Netherlands: Helpful, but no blank check.

Poland: Going the extra mile for Britain but not at all costs.

Portugal: Balancing a centuries-old alliance with a modern commitment to the EU.

Romania: Continued free movement to the UK will be the ultimate redline.

Slovakia: Quiet anticipation at the helm of the EU Council.

Slovenia: Hoping for a remain vote.

Spain: Brexit will be seen through domestic politics.

Sweden: Prioritising geopolitics and cultural proximity with the UK.

EU institutions: EU first and looking forward.


About the Author


LSE IDEAS is LSE’s foreign policy think tank. We connect academic knowledge of diplomacy and strategy with the people who use it.

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